While CME Cocoa is in the midst of a 3 day up trend, Bucking the trend and turning lower, Cocoa is down to $2,905 per metric tonne, after ending yesterday at $2,914. Overall, a 0.31% loss or $9 today.
Initial Jobless Claims data from United States will be released today at 12:30 UTC with analysts expecting a decline to 200,000. Potentially significant price fluctuations in the Cocoa future are expected to follow.
United States Crude Oil Inventories released earlier showed a marked improvement to -3.74 million from the preceding data of -7.49 million, but fell short of the -2.33 million figure forecast by a consensus of market analysts.
While price action maintains a negative bias, United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) came out at 51.2, while a consensus of analysts was expecting 54.5. United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) released yesterday at 12:15 UTC with a figure of 145,000, while the previous figure was 261,000.
Trend analysis indicates that investors are seeking long positions as Cocoa price action surged above +100 — a key CCI threshold indicating an imminent bullish trend. Asset volatility analysis shows that CME Cocoa's upper Bollinger Band® is at $2,953 which indicates a further downward move may follow.
Notwithstanding the Cocoa future's appreciation in recent days, the technical outlook suggests its bullish run is now fading.
Taking a look at other Softs commodities, negative performances are evident as Sugar closed at $22.38 (down 2.48%).
Positive performances can be seen by looking at other Softs markets as Cotton is up 1.09%.
Looking ahead, ongoing depreciation may be prolonged as United States Non Farm Payrolls projected to come out at 240,000 — worse than previous data of 311,000; data will be released tomorrow at 12:30 UTC. As things stand, upcoming United States Initial Jobless Claims data is projected to fall short of market expectations with newly published data of 200,000, following on from the preceding figure of 198,000. New data is set to be published today at 12:30 UTC.
Furthermore, United States Unemployment Rate is expected tomorrow at 12:30 UTC.
Cocoa is now trading 31.77% above the significant low ($2,211.5) it slumped to 6 months ago.